National infrastructure (NI, including energy, transport, water, waste and ICT) is a foundation for economic productivity and human wellbeing. However, the NI of the UK and other advanced economies face serious challenges which include: significant vulnerabilities, capacity limitations, and a number of NI components nearing the end of their useful life and etc. (CST, 2009). The UK Infrastructure Transition Research Consortium (ITRC) has been established, funded by EPSRC, to provide theoretical research, models and practical decision support tools to enable strategic analysis and planning of NI system; to respond to future demographic, social and lifestyle changes; and to build resilience to intensifying impacts of climate change.
In WS1, a generic modelling framework for analysis of long term change in capacity and demand under uncertainty will be developed. In this paper, a framework will be provided for the projection of population change into the medium-term future. The disaggregation of these projections to individual household types will be demonstrated using a demographic microsimulation model (MSM). The energy sector will be used to demonstrate the deployment of the MS.
Dynamic microsimulation modelling for national infrastructure demand in an uncertain future (pdf, 940 KB). Conference GeoComputation 2013, Wuhan, China (2013), 23–25 May 2013.
Zuo, C., Birkin, M. and Malleson, N.