Read about the remarkable ITRC story here: https://www.itrc.org.uk/the-itrc-story/  and enjoy scrolling the site.

Thank you for visiting!

Despite recognition of the need for action, policy makers face challenges in understanding where resources should be allocated, and which practical actions should be prioritized, to maximize progress. Through a systematic assessment of global research, this report offers new insights to help address this challenge.

The largest sources of greenhouse gas emissions are associated with the energy, transport and buildings sectors (the last of which include homes, offices and schools). In an increasingly connected world, and with the COVID-19 pandemic transforming the way we work, learn and socialize, emissions from the digital communication sector are expected to rise. However, to the extent that digital systems decrease our reliance on the transport and building sectors (e.g. through reduced commuting and remote working), they have the potential to offset emissions and reduce total greenhouse gas emissions overall.  54 per cent of all future adaptation costs will need to be spent on the water sector, more than all other sectors combined. These costs originate from hazard protection provided by this sector that can reduce risks from floods, sea level rise, storm surge events, and other climate impacts. Whilst traditional built protective infrastructure (e.g. sea walls) will play an important role in risk reduction, nature-based solutions (such as reforestation, mangroves and wetlands) represent an effective and resource-efficient alternative that can offer a multitude of co-benefits including carbon sequestration and the enhancement of habitats. Policies that protect those exposed to hazards, in particular those most vulnerable within society, will also play a critical role in managing overall climate risk.

As we rapidly approach the 2030 milestone for the achievement of the Paris Agreement and SDG targets, and in the face of a climate emergency, action is desperately required to reduce climate change and its harmful impacts, as well as ensure that development is sustainable, resilient and inclusive. The research synthesized within this publication highlights the transformative role that infrastructure investments can have, including which sectors have the greatest potential to drive sustainable development, and opportunities to work in a holistic and integrated way to maximize positive impacts. Practical actions and case studies highlight tangible routes to action, while policy priorities show where efforts can be targeted to take this transformation to scale

Click here to download the full Infrastructure for Climate Action report.

Dr Hu on Sky News Daily Climate Show to discuss the latest from the pre-COP26 youth event:  Greta Thunberg’s impact on the world and massive deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon.

Check out the whole show or skip ahead to see Sisi at 13:10 for about 7 mins:

https://news.sky.com/video/the-daily-climate-show-deforestation-in-the-most-precious-parts-of-the-brazilian-amazon-reaches-record-levels-12420700.

8 July: Academic Use Cases and introduction to using DAFNI

Location:  Zoom Virtual event  

On behalf of the DAFNI’s Executive, I would like to take this opportunity to invite you to our main event for 2021, which will be a two day event and will not only formally launch the DAFNI platform, but provide the opportunity to share some of the impacts DAFNI is already having in research.  This two day event is will held on Monday, 5th July and Thursday, 8th July, both occasions it will be virtual and using zoom.  We are delighted to announce the following Keynote speakers for our event:

Professor Dame Ottoline Leyser, UKRI Chief Executive

Kathryn Brown, Head of Adaptation at the Committee on Climate Change

Professor Robert Nicholls, Director of the Tyndall Centre, and University of East Anglia and Lead for the Open Climate Framework Project (OpenClim)

Professor David Wallom, University of Oxford  and a flagship lead for the new UK Centre for Green Finance and Investment (CGFI)

…..and this is naming just a few of the keynotes speakers you will be able to hear from during the two days and learn more about the role they see DAFNI having in the future of research.

We welcome participation from people in industry, government and research who have an interest in modelling, simulation, visualisation and data analysis.  We will be showcasing the capabilities that DAFNI Platform has to offer to help revolutionise infrastructure research, business and planning nationwide and beyond. It is hoped that this will event will provide the opportunity to engage with the wider community and invite further involvement with DAFNI.  

Academic Use Case and DAFNI Training, 8 July 2021

On the second day of the conference, you are invited to hear from our Champions and learn more about the use cases they have developed and implemented on DAFNI.

We are also taking this opportunity to provide training on how use and access DAFNI.  Details of training modules for which you will be able to sign up for before the day will be released on our website.

You can follow the developments within DAFNI at www.dafni.ac.uk as well as signing up to our news updates. We also encourage you to follow us on Twitter @dafnifacility. To get involved with DAFNI please contact Marion Samler, who is the DAFNI Partnership Manager.

Yours ever,

Professor Jim Hall

Chair of the DAFNI Governance Board  

Interested? We’d love to see you there

https://dafni.ac.uk/conference2021/

  ]]> https://www.itrc.org.uk/news/dr-edward-oughton-awarded-runner-up-in-prestigious-lloyds-2021-science-of-risk-awards-cyber-category-2021/ Mon, 24 May 2021 16:36:16 +0000 https://www.itrc.org.uk/?p=41483 The prize was for Dr Oughton’s research quantifying the vulnerability of electricity networks from cyberattacks.  The prestigious Lloyd’s Science of Risk prizes are awarded to esteemed academics and PhD students who, through their published scientific work, further the understanding of risk and insurance.

Dr Oughton discussed how the research helps identify:

• How to quantify future risks for which we have no effective historical record
• What opportunities and risks cyber-physical attacks on Critical National Infrastructure (CNI) pose for the insurance industry.

He identified how underwriters of business interruption insurance can adapt the risk framework developed in the stochastic counterfactual risk analysis to specifically assess their own balance sheet exposure.  “Our research paper can provide the technical foundations needed for actuarial modelling to inform pricing and risk management of this opportunity,” explains Dr Edward Oughton. “Critical national infrastructure such as smart electricity networks are susceptible to malicious cyberattacks which could cause substantial power outages and cascading failure affecting multiple business, health and education organisations as well domestic supply,” he adds.

The research, “Stochastic Counterfactual Risk Analysis for the Vulnerability Assessment of Cyber-Physical Attacks on Electricity Distribution Infrastructure Networks”, published in Risk Analysis journal, shows conservative scenarios ranging from £20.6 million for a four-substation electricity event to £111.4 million for a 14-substation electricity event.  Even though the research focused on conservative scenarios, the paper demonstrates that 1.5 million people would be affected even by a relatively small attack.

Until Edward and fellow researchers carried out this study, little was known about the effects and costs of cyber-physical attacks on electricity networks.  Cyber-physical systems increasingly monitor infrastructure through smart energy and smart transport systems and are proving to be a point of failure which many people previously thought impermeable.  Dr Oughton explains, “Cyberattacks are on the increase and gathering data to help model the effects of such cyber-physical attacks is essential to develop risk analytics for emerging threats and cascading failure across Critical National Infrastructure (CNI).”

“Stochastic Counterfactual Risk Analysis for the Vulnerability Assessment of Cyber-Physical Attacks on Electricity Distribution Infrastructure Networks”. Risk Analysis. Edward J. Oughton.

Co-authors: Daniel Ralph, University of Cambridge, Raghav Pant, University of Oxford, Eireann Leverett, Waratah Analytics /University of Cambridge, Jennifer Copic, University of Cambridge, Rabia Dada, University of Cambridge, Scott Thacker, UNOPS / University of Oxford, Simon Ruffle, University of Cambridge, Michelle Tuveson, University of Cambridge,  and Jim Hall, University of Oxford.

At the time the research was carried out Dr Oughton was part of the UK Infrastructure Transitions Research Consortium (ITRC) at the University of Oxford and the Centre for Risk Studies at the Cambridge Judge Business School, he is now Assistant Professor at George Mason University.

Predicting cell phone adoption metrics using machine learning and satellite imagery, by Edward J. Oughton and Jatin Mathur

Approximately half of the global population does not have access to the internet, even though digital connectivity can reduce poverty by revolutionizing economic development opportunities. Due to a lack of data, Mobile Network Operators and governments struggle to effectively determine if infrastructure investments are viable, especially in greenfield areas where demand is unknown. This leads to a lack of investment in network infrastructure.

In this paper a machine learning method is presented that uses publicly available satellite imagery to predict telecoms demand metrics, including cell phone adoption and spending on mobile services.

A predictive machine learning approach consistently outperforms baseline models which use population density or nightlight luminosity, with an improvement in data variance prediction of at least 40%.

The method is a starting point for developing more sophisticated predictive models of infrastructure demand using machine learning and publicly available satellite imagery.

The evidence produced can help to better inform infrastructure investment and policy decisions.

Highlights

• Cell phone adoption metrics can be predicted using satellite imagery.
• We present an open-source predictive machine learning approach.
• A minimum predictive improvement of 40% is achieved against baseline models.

Access

Open access link until June 2021:  https://authors.elsevier.com/a/1cvpI2dUkYPwwf

Long-term link:  https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0736585321000617

Acknowledgement

The research was developed while EJO was at the University of Oxford under MISTRAL (EPSRC grant EP/N017064/1).

The interactive article explains the steps in the research, and lets readers discover some of the wide range of alternatives that can be considered.  Users can explore the outputs at Arc, city, or neighbourhood scales.

Local authorities, stakeholder partnerships and other bodies, who may wish to use these models in their work, can use this explorable explanation as a starting point, to see how the analysis works.

There are some strikingly different outcomes from the choices that can be made in terms of land taken for development, natural environment and ecosystems services at risk, and joined-up connectivity of future housing development to different modes of transport.

View the interactive article at https://nismod.github.io/arc-udm-vis/

Acknowledgements

This work has been carried out by researchers at the University of Oxford and Newcastle University in the UK, funded by the Alan Turing Institute (ATI), to inform the analysis, planning and design of resilient national, regional and local infrastructure around the world.

• Heidi Mok, Visualisation design and development
• Tom Russell, Maps and visualisation, scenario development
• James Virgo, Urban development modelling
• Alison Smith, Ecosystem services assessment
• Jim Hall, Discussion, feedback and scenario development
• Alistair Ford, Discussion, feedback and scenario development

The Urban Development Model (UDM) was used to produce the results presented in the article. The Natural Capital Mapping toolkit was used to assess ecosystem services.

On 9 November Jim Hall, ITRC Director, chaired another well-attended ITRC webinar which focused on digital infrastructure, examining the importance of both conceptual and practical work in how we think about and analyse digital connectivity on broad scales.

Dr Edward Oughton, Assistant Professor of Data Analytics, George Mason University, gave a showcase of ITRC’s hugely impressive and wide-ranging work in this area over the past five years, which was followed by comments and responses from a distinguished, well-qualified international panel: Julius Kusuma, Research Scientist, Facebook Connectivity; William (Bill) Lehr, Research Scientist, Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Lab (CSAIL) at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) and Tania Begazo-Gomez, Senior Economist, Digital Development, World Bank.

Ed’s overview showed how initial modelling to help the UK government lay out a strategy for the UK to improve digital connectivity soon acquired remarkable global reach, when tools piloted in the UK were scaled to apply to other contexts, culminating in the Global Model for Digital Infrastructure Assessment. Refining their approach with each study, Ed and his team have developed a robust modelling process for estimating demand at local level, using global datasets and remote sensor metrics to support the process. They then design least-cost network options with the analytics to inform investment decisions, running different strategies to obtain decision-support results for governments or private-sector operators on capacity and costs. His most recent work has been on the 5G Flagship and the Digital Economy for Africa Program – crucially looking at costs of investment and infrastructure challenges for lower and middle-income countries in Africa.

Julius responded by praising Ed’s work on analysing scenarios and potential outcomes using ITRC models, emphasising the complexities of connectivity in a world that’s hugely diverse in terms of connectivity needs, aspirations and potential – making it very difficult to find solutions that are timely, sustainable and scalable. He identified a lack of digital infrastructure as one of the biggest global challenges, particularly in rural areas.

Bill talked about the relevance of next-generation wireless networks in high-income areas of the world, such as the US and Europe, pointing out that this will be key to realising all future infrastructure developments. Part of the value of ITRC’s modelling is to examine the key questions – how much digital capacity do we need? Where do we need them? How many devices exist in a particular area? How fast can we realise these needs? Multiple stakeholder involvement, including consumers/businesses, network operators and governments require inputs, on multiple scales, before committing to investment. Modelling this future is essential in order to consider alternatives, demand forecast, understand trade-offs between social and private concerns, and to attempt to foresee future technologies and ITC needs.

Tania has been working with Ed on World Bank initiatives to improve digital provision in parts of the world where connectivity is lagging, examining how to minimise the cost of infrastructure deployment given available technologies. She spoke of the challenge of obtaining reliable data in many parts of the world, and the lack of usage in some areas with the accompanying challenge to find strategies, commercial and government sponsored, to help the public become digitally engaged. She also emphasised the huge importance to world of connectivity, and its strong links to education and prosperity.

With many stimulating questions from listeners and participants, Jim and Ed then led a wide-ranging discussion which covered, amongst other things, technical and demand-side issues, regulation and the role of government in digital infrastructure, and artificial intelligence.

Watch the webinar on catch up, below:

On 28 October 2020, ITRC Director Jim Hall presented the sixth webinar in this popular series – examining Britain’s water-supply system and the interdependencies between water and energy. With current trends in climate change and increasing pressures of demand from a growing population, research and modelling in this area is crucial to planning towards a future with reliable and environmentally-sustainable water resources for all – households, agriculture and industry. The ambition evident in the webinar represents a major strategic shift in thinking – from looking at water supply at a company-by-company level, with no resilience planning, to pushing towards a regional and national strategical approach, facilitated by the capacity to create a national water resilience picture that enables understanding and stress-testing of extreme drought situations and the multiple pressures inherent on the network.

Presentations were made on ITRC’s contributions to this vital debate by Dr Barney Dobson, Research Associate, Department for Civil and Environmental Engineering, Imperial College London and Edward Byers, Research Scholar, Energy Programme, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA).

Keynote speakers were Jean Spencer, Independent Chair of the National Water Resources Framework Senior Steering Group and Jonathan Dennis, Principal, Policy and Analytics at Regulators’ Alliance for Progressing Infrastructure Development (RAPID).

Jean opened the webinar with an overview of the Water Resources Framework (WRF)’s important and ongoing series of work to develop long-term, resilient water resource planning. The National Framework for Water Resources, published in March this year, comprises research from previous studies by Water UK and National Infrastructure Commission (NIC), and takes a collaborative and regional approach, working with government regulators, water companies, water-using sectors, academics and environmental NGOs to deliver a long-term planning framework for the whole of England. At the heart of the study is the ambition for restoring, protecting and improving the environment that’s the source for our supplies.

Barney then presented the ITRC modelling that informed the Framework – the creation and development of the National Water Resource Model, the first national-scale water supply model of England and Wales. Using data including the key elements of the water supply system, rainfall and abstractions, climate and soil moisture, the model creates coherent simulations of national water supply, allowing us to see and plan for extremes of climate, in particular drought, in the near future (2050) and the far future (2100). It also allows sensitivity to other uncertainties, such as population growth – giving supply-side and demand-side options, key when considering the large suites of available options and optimising sequences of investments.

More pioneering, national-scale research on the interdependencies between water use and energy supply was presented by Ed. With traditional carbon fuel electricity generation and carbon capture and storage (CCS) using large amounts of fresh water, modelling allows us to plan for future technologies, energy mixes and siting that conserve water – and identifies droughts as a risk to reliable electricity from thermo-electric plants, with huge cost implications.

Jonathan spoke of RAPID’s work, which specifically supports water-supply infrastructure development by addressing barriers. He identified modelling capacity and continued collaboration with Oxford and Manchester Universities as key to this ambition, making the point that it’s essential for suppliers to explore a range of strategic water-resource options as minutely as possible before making up to £8bn worth of future infrastructure development. Continued modelling, he argued, also allows us to work through challenges such as the difficulties in representing the natural environment and in integrating local and national data/outcomes, prompting ‘informed conversations’ that ultimately lead to the right water infrastructure.

Watch the webinar on catch up, below: