Society for Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty annual workshop

13–15 November 2017, Oxford

This event will have a focus on the practical application of DMDU methodologies, and details of the workshop programme have now been released. Claire Craig, Director of Science Policy at the Royal Society, and Sergej Mahnovski, Director of Strategic Planning at Edison International will be our keynote speakers.

The workshop will be preceded by a training day on DMDU methodologies on 13 November 2017. Dinner on the evening of 14 November will be held in Oxford’s historic Museum of Natural History.

DMDU 2017 workshop theme: dealing with deep uncertainty in decision making across multiple scales

This year’s workshop will tackle the challenges of decision making at many different scales from the perspective of deep uncertainty. The theme of multiple scales embraces spatial scales, temporal scales and the governance issues that they create.

Challenges for decision making under deep uncertainty can arise from the interaction between spatial scales including:

  • Global: including issues of climate change mitigation, resource exploitation, finance and security
  • National: including macro-economics, infrastructure investment, innovation, social policy and civil protection
  • Regional and catchment scale: including water resources management and regional economic development
  • City-scale: including adaptation to climate change, local energy systems, and transportation and mobility.

Challenges for decision making under deep uncertainty can also arise from interaction between temporal scales including:

  • Short-term and real-time problems, where information is scarce and time for decision making is constrained.
  • Longer-term policy, planning and investment problems, whose success is contingent upon future changes that are very hard to predict.

Workshop programme

Workshop day 1: 14 November 2017

Posters will be available throughout the day, with special sessions during lunchtime and other breaks
Morning
09:30–13:00
Global scale keynote:

  • Informing policy decision making with Foresight methodologies
    Claire Craig, Director of Science Policy, Royal Society
Panel discussion including:

  • Angela Wilkinson, Senior Director – Scenarios & Insights, World Energy Council
  • Jerry Ravetz, Associate Fellow, James Martin Institute for Science & Civilisation, University of Oxford
Problem-solving session lead by the UK’s Defence Science & Technology Laboratory (DSTL)
National scale keynote:
UK national infrastructure assessment and plenary discussion
Afternoon
14:00–18:00
Perspectives from national and regional scales:

  • Long-term planning in Small Islands Developing States under a changing climate
    Julie Rozenberg, Economist, World Bank Sustainable Development Group
  • Integrated systems method – identification of policy options for a complex wicked problem
    Leena Ilmola Sheppard, Senior Research Scholar, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Problem-solving session:

  • DMDU in emergency and real time situations
    Tina Comes, Delft University of Technology & University of Agder
    Bartel Van de Walle, Delft University of Technology
Tools and models demonstration showcase: small group demonstrations and discussion
Dinner
18:30–21:00
Reception and dinner in the Oxford Museum of Natural History

Workshop day 2: 15 November 2017

Posters will be available throughout the day, with special sessions during lunchtime and other breaks
Morning
09:00–13:00
City-scale keynote address:

  • Sergej Mahnovski, Director of Strategic Planning, Edison International
Panel discussion including:

  • Tim Reeder, Independent consultant, formerly of the UK’s Environment Agency
  • Ronan Palmer, Director of Strategy, Ofwat
Problem-solving session – city scale
Parallel sessions – more details soon
Afternoon
14:30–17:00
Feedback from parallel sessions
Insights from the cutting edge of DMDU

  • Role of scenarios in decision support under deep uncertainty: psychological evidence and anthropological possibilities
    Rob Lempert, RAND
  • Transcending uncertainty
    Gwythian Prins, LSE
  • Morality, uncertainty and policy
    Yakov ben Haim, Technion
Workshop close, 17:00

DMDU Society international training day

13 November 2017, Oxford

This training session will provide guidance for those who wish to apply DMDU tools to the analytical problems they face. But just as importantly, the agenda also seeks to help people working with the output of DMDU tools, so that they might derive better understanding and value in applying these results.

For people attending both the training day and the workshop, the training will support their more engaged workshop participation.

For participants who will not be attending the subsequent workshop, it will provide an overview of the developing DMDU field with exposure to core concepts, current discourse and leading tools and applications.

The workshop will give equal weight to overview presentations, hands-on demonstrations and plenary discussion among the participants and with leading DMDU practitioners.

Further details to follow. Lunch and tea/coffee provided.

Morning Introductions and overview of the day, interactive sessions
Afternoon Demonstrations, presentation on DMDU in practice, Q&A
Evening Drinks reception