THEMES

URBAN DEVELOPMENT

Scope
Methodology
Impact
Publications
Case studies
URBAN DEVELOPMENT

SCOPE

As urban areas change into the future, new spatial patterns of development will arise driven by population growth and economic activity. The team at Newcastle University have been working on the application of their Urban Development Model (UDM) on the Oxford-Cambridge Arc to explore potential future urban growth patterns. The model uses population projections and planning policy drivers, such as greenspace protection or transit-oriented development, to identify likely areas of new urban development in the future. These patterns can be explored for Business as Usual scenarios, following current day trends and policies, or for new ‘what if?’ scenarios of alternative planning options. This will help us understand the impacts of new infrastructure, such as the East-West Rail line, on urban growth and the impacts of that urbanisation on natural capital, greenspace, or flood risk. We aim to help local authorities plan for sustainable future urban growth by identifying development patterns that protect natural capital and build at a suitable density and in locations that enable uptake of active travel or public transport.
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URBAN DEVELOPMENT

METHODOLOGY

The UDM uses a set of spatial drivers, such as proximity to public transport hubs or existing urban areas, to score areas in terms of their suitability for development. A further set of spatial constraints, such as greenbelt land or nature reserves, exclude areas from future development. The model operates over a raster grid (typically 1ha resolution) to allocate urban growth, driven by population projections and scenarios of housing density, for future housing provision. The development density is based on machine learning analysis, undertaken by the University of Oxford, of existing urban form. This provides a range of potential future development densities for exploration under the ‘what-if?’ scenarios.

Outputs from UDM are spatial maps of future development for a given scenario, showing where expected residential will take place under the input planning attractors and constraints. These patterns can be tested against policy objectives, such as natural capital loss or development within walking distance of public transport hubs, or used as drivers for infrastructure demand modelling.

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URBAN DEVELOPMENT

IMPACT

Spatial patterns of infrastructure demand

The development of UDM as part of ITRC MISTRAL has allowed new insights into the potential impact of population change on urban growth, and therefore spatial patterns of infrastructure demand. By coupling UDM to the work at the University of Leeds on SIMIM and population projections, a new set of spatial development scenarios for the Arc region have been developed.

Informing planing policy decisions
These scenarios are being used by local authorities and the Environment Agency to help understand potential impacts of future urban development on the region. The use of such spatial models allows decision-makers to explore the effect of planning policy decisions, such as relaxing the greenbelt constraints, on patterns of urbanisation. The outputs from the MISTRAL UDM modelling work can help inform climate change impact assessments and assess policies for the transition to Net Zero.
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URBAN DEVELOPMENT

PUBLICATIONS

Sustainable futures in the built environment to 2050: A foresight approach to construction and development

Authors from ITRC’s research community have contributed to an important new book, Sustainable futures in the built environment to 2050: A foresight approach to construction and development. This ... read more

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URBAN DEVELOPMENT

CASE STUDIES

New tools bring unique insights for policymakers and planners

New tools bring unique insights for policymakers and planners

The UK Infrastructure Transitions Research Consortium (ITRC) is the driver behind much of the UK’s groundbreaking research into infrastructure modelling and analytics; analysing future 5G network read more

More accurate town planning thanks to ITRC’s Urban Development Model

More accurate town planning thanks to ITRC’s Urban Development Model

The ITRC’s Urban Development Model (UDM) is a new research tool which can be used to identify areas in the UK suitable for future residential development along with the types of dwellings needed ... read more

RESEARCH THEMES

ENERGY
TRANSPORT
WATER
DIGITAL COMMUNICATIONS
DEMOGRAPHICS
URBAN DEVELOPMENT
ECONOMICS
INFRASTRUCTURE
GOVERNANCE
NISMOD
RISK AND
RESILIENCE
RESEARCH SOFTWARE ENGINEERING
DATABASES