Risk and resilience of infrastructure systems


In parallel with the work on long-term strategic modelling, ITRC has developed a detailed hierarchical representation of the real-world assets and networks of the UK’s energy, transport, and water infrastructure sectors in order to assess the interdependent systems’ vulnerability to various hazards. This incorporates stochastic climate projections and hydrological modelling to derive profiles of natural hazards such as storms and floods that threaten infrastructure assets and systems.

Risk analysis framework

A NISMOD’s risk analysis framework uses the profiles to examine the robustness and vulnerability of existing and hypothetical configurations of national infrastructure networks, and allows assessment of different national strategies for infrastructure provision based on their risk-footprint under climate change.

The framework was used to inform the UK Department for Transport’s Review of the resilience of the transport network to extreme weather in July 2014; and, working with JBA Consulting and the Met Office, to develop a comprehensive methodology to assess the implications of climate change on interdependent infrastructures when designing the route of the High-Speed 2 railway, HS2.


Building on these tools and methodologies, ITRC has worked with the World Bank in Tanzania, Vietnam and Argentina to assess climate risks to multi-modal transport systems and the costs and benefits of adaptation options, taking into account not only direct risks to infrastructure, such as flood or landslide damage to roads or railways, but also indirect risks to society and the economy: decreased access to schools and hospitals, increase in cost of routes to market, and wider disruptions to input-output flows of goods between regions within countries and internationally.



Raghav Pant

Tom Russell

Elco Koks

Conrad Zorn

Ed Oughton

Roald Schoenmakers

Scott Thacker


University of Oxford

Oxford Infrastructure Analytics

Related collaborations

World Bank – Tanzania, Vietnam, Argentina Transport Risk Analysis projects



Spatial Networks Data Cleaning Toolkit

Tanzania Transport Risk Analysis

Vietnam Transport Risk Analysis

Argentina Transport Risk Analysis

Risk Analysis Visualisation Tool