Working with the National Infrastructure Commission, we developed a baseline projection for population and employment in UK cities and undertook sensitivity testing of projections to consider outcomes under different assumptions about future growth patterns. We developed alternative scenarios for population and employment growth in cities reflecting transport infrastructure constraints and housing constraints. The headline conclusion reported in the National Infrastructure Assessment is that transport networks are close to capacity in many UK cities.

Our work focused on:

• Providing evidence that transport capacity constraints impact on employment growth
• Providing evidence linking the supply of housing to employment growth and
• Exploring the utility (and caveats) around using a projection-based approach for analysis.

Methodologies

Phase 1:

• Developing a baseline projection for population and employment in UK cities and other places, based on ONS sub-national population projections.

• Sensitivity testing of ONS projections to consider outcomes under different assumptions about future growth patterns.

Phase 2:

• Developing alternative scenarios for population and employment growth in cities reflecting transport infrastructure constraints.

• Developing alternative scenarios for population and employment growth in cities reflecting housing constraints, and reflecting the combined effect of transport and housing constraints.

National Infrastructure Assessment

• Chapter 4: Transport and housing for thriving city regions
• Supporting documents section: Effects of capacity constraints on population and employment distribution