Evaluation of potential infrastructure projects varies from straightforward financial assessment, to explicit methods requiring multi-criteria valuation and uncertainty analysis. All, however, are siloed to their own sector and in many cases the stand-alone project under consideration, ignoring the growing interdependence between the sectors. Here we develop a long-term multi-sector, multi-attribute decision analysis, demonstrated through a case study on the Thames Hub proposal. Uncertainty is assessed through sensitivity analysis, provisioning time-dependency analysis and an adapted real options analysis, to produce bounded valuation of decision pathways. Further consideration of spatial feedbacks is then reviewed through a land-use transport model. The results are brought together to demonstrate a strategic, integrated infrastructure assessment methodology, focused on delivering long-term resilience despite uncertainty.
Strategic Appraisal of interdependent infrastructure provision: a case study from the Thames Hub
Young, K., Hall, J.W.