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National scale risk analysis of interdependent infrastructure network failures due to extreme hazards

Jan 14, 2014

Abstract

Extreme natural hazards such as floods, hurricanes and earthquakes can cause catastrophic failures of infrastructure assets and networks. Understanding the risks due to natural hazards on large-scale infrastructures presents several challenges due to ubiquitous uncertainties and inherent system complexities. This study proposes a comprehensive system-of-systems approach for building different components of the risk problem and combining them into a cohesive framework. We build and apply analytical concepts, theoretical and simulation models and data tools to develop the integrated risk analysis framework. The system-of-systems approach adopted here produces: (i) a mathematical formalisation of the risk analysis framework that deals with quantifying probabilistic hazards, interdependent infrastructure failure probabilities, disruption evaluation, and economic loss estimation, and (ii) a demonstrable framework that establishes a unified implementation for reliability analysis, vulnerability assessment, and risk analysis. A case study with interdependent national electricity and railway networks and spatial hazard events shows the results of the risk calculations and provide valuable insights into understanding and interpreting national-scale infrastructure risk.

National scale risk analysis of interdependent infrastructure network failures due to extreme hazards. Working paper. ITRC/University of Oxford, Newcastle University, January 2014.

Authors

Pant, R., Hall, J.W., Thacker, S., Barr, S., Alderson, D.

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RESEARCH THEMES

ENERGY
TRANSPORT
WATER
DIGITAL COMMUNICATIONS
DEMOGRAPHICS
URBAN
DEVELOPMENT
ECONOMICS
INFRASTRUCTURE
GOVERNANCE
NISMOD
RISK AND
RESILIENCE
RESEARCH SOFTWARE ENGINEERING
DATABASES