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ENERGY DEMAND

ENERGY DEMAND

INTRODUCTION

The energy demand model allows the simulation of long-term changes in energy demand patterns for the residential, service and industry sector on a high temporal and spatial scale across the United Kingdom. The model allows the simulation of innovative technologies and policies, and their diffusion across space and time. It considers socio-technical trends and simulates the demand for different fuel types such as hydrogen, gas and electricity for alternative futures.
ENERGY DEMAND

RESULTS

The demand for energy will need to undergo significant change in order to achieve emission goals and to transition towards future sustainable energy systems. The future of demand of energy is however highly uncertain. Whereas existing models mainly simulate future energy demands on a national and annual scale, we simulate energy demands on a high spatio-temporal resolution. Because drivers of energy demand such as population are highly spatial in nature, capturing changes in energy demands on a regional scale enables local energy systems planning.

Our high-resolution modelling captures considerable regional variation in energy demands which have so far mainly not been able to capture (Figure 1).

Figure 1: Change in total electricity demand (Source: Eggimann et al. 2019).

Capturing hourly peak demand enables to analyse the change in peak demands, which are crucial for dimensioning of the energy system.

Results show considerable change in future energy peak demands depending on drivers of energy demand (Figure 2).

Including weather variability shows that weather has a considerable influence on electricity peak demand.

Figure 2: Change in peak electricity demand considering different degrees of electrification, showing a peak increase of up to twice of current electricity demands. Weather variability is indicated with shaded area (source: Eggimann et al. 2019).

The hourly resolution of modelled energy demand allows to simulate demand side management opportunities (Figure 3).

We simulate that total peak electricity demand could be reduced by fully managed heat pumps profiles by 0.2–5.8 GW (0.4–11.1%).

Figure 3: Simulating demand side management for large-scale heat pump diffusion considering a managed load profile (left: electricity, right: gas) (source: Eggimann et al. 2019).

ENERGY DEMAND

APPLICATIONS

The energy demand model allows the simulation of long-term changes in energy demand patterns for the residential, service and industry sector on a high temporal and spatial scale across the United Kingdom. It allows the parametrisation of innovative technologies and policies, and their diffusion across space and time. The model focusing on socio-technical trends and simulates the effect of alternative infrastructure futures on the demand for different fuels such as hydrogen, gas and electricity.

Energy demands are decomposed in different end-uses and sectors, based on national energy demand statistics. Demand is projected based on a set of scenario drivers such as population, gross value added or temperatures. A building stock representation is included in the model.

Energy demands are spatially disaggregated to about 400 regions with the help of different disaggregation factors such as floor area. Wherever possible, a bottom-up approach relying on measuring trial data is implemented for hourly energy demand modelling for specific technologies or enduses.

The spatial and temporal disaggregation methodology is validated. The simulated demand projections serve foremostly as a key input for energy supply models in order to optimize future energy systems.

Main assumptions / Key Features

  • Innovative spatio-temporal high resolution energy demand simulation (regional and hourly).
  • Simulates future residential, service and industrial energy demand for various end uses.
  • Model is able to include weather variability.
  • Mixture of bottom-up and top down simulating methodology using national energy demand statistics and actual specific load profiles.
  • The model allows embedding regional changes in energy demand for different fuel carriers such as electricity, gas or hydrogen.
  • The model has and underlying building stock representation, particularly reflecting changes due to different housing and population scenarios.

Figure 4: Modelling methodology overview. i) national energy demands are assigned to regions. (ii) energy demands are projected into the future based on drivers of energy demand. (iii) Annual energy demand is converted to hourly demands.

ENERGY DEMAND

DATA REQUIREMENTS

National energy demand statistics

Daily minimum and maximum temperatures

Hourly load profiles per end-use, technology or sector

ENERGY DEMAND

PUBLICATIONS

A high-resolution spatio-temporal energy demand simulation to explore the potential of heating demand side management with large-scale heat pump diffusion

Localisation of energy technologies and policies is increasing the need for high-resolution spatial and temporal energy demand simulation modelling, which goes beyond annual and national scale. ... read more

ENERGY DEMAND

CASE STUDIES

Low carbon energy supply strategies for the Oxford-Cambridge Arc region

Low carbon energy supply strategies for the Oxford-Cambridge Arc region

This research was funded by a grant from the UK Engineering and Physical Science Research Council to the ITRCResearch question & scope The energy supply model is utilised to evaluate how ... read more

Cyberattacks on London’s electricity networks costing up to £111m daily

Cyberattacks on London’s electricity networks costing up to £111m daily

New research shows cyberattacks on London’s electricity networks leads to widespread disruption, costing up to £111m daily. read more

RESEARCH THEMES

ENERGY
TRANSPORT
WATER
DIGITAL COMMUNICATIONS
DEMOGRAPHICS
URBAN DEVELOPMENT
ECONOMICS
INFRASTRUCTURE
GOVERNANCE
NISMOD
RISK AND
RESILIENCE
RESEARCH SOFTWARE ENGINEERING
DATABASES